Forex Trading Review – Week 30

This week was a slow one. Nothing too exciting, just the same old routine of pumping out good trades as consistently as possible.

I took 5 trades this week. 2 lost, 3 hit targets, making this a +1.1% gain towards my current drawdown.

22nd July – 26th July

Trade #139

Reflection:

My first trade of the week was a nice pullback setup on GBP/USD.

Price was making lower lows and lower highs below the 50-EMA, breaking structure to the downside, putting this pair into a 1-Hour bearish trend (within the context of a bearish Daily trend).

So this met my rules for an entry on this timeframe perfectly, so I went for it and got a nice one-target winner out of this setup.

Trade #140

Reflection:

My second trade was a losing trade on USD/JPY.

Opposite to GBP/USD, this pair was in a bullish trend on this 1-hour chart, making higher lows and higher highs breaking structure to the upside while maintaining the 50-EMA as support.

Unfortunately this trade did not play out profitably and price tagged my stop loss before heading higher, but it was a Good Trade according to my rules, so nothing more to say here.

Trade #141

Reflection:

My third trade was a great intraday setup on EUR/JPY.

The Daily chart had just broken below a major support zone, so I was extremely keen to get short on this pair. I woke up on Wednesday morning and saw that price had given me an entry reason overnight on the 15-Minute chart and had not yet invalidated the trade or hit the stop loss.

So I went for it, and fortunately this trade rolled over pretty much immediately and didn’t put me through any pain whatsoever.

When I closed the trade after a very strong higher-high higher-close candle I was burned by slippage as for whatever reason, the next candle jumped up several pips before I could exit the trade.

So I missed out on slightly more profit than I should have on this setup, but that happens. It’s no big deal, just something I ought to mention. Sometimes it goes the other way and I make more money instead of less, so it balances out.

Good Trade nonetheless.

Trade #142

Reflection:

This was a second attempt to capture Daily trend-continuation out of this pair, but unfortunately I was caught in a reversal and stopped out pretty much immediately.

This Daily candle closed as a large bullish engulfing candle which I did not expect given that price is in the middle of nowhere. But as you can see from this Daily chart screenshot, momentum has clearly dried up to the downside, so I am expecting more consolidation over this coming week before we move lower:

It’s possible we might see a deeper retracement on this Daily chart back up towards the 50-Day EMA, so I will be keeping a close eye on what this pair does early next week.

Trade #143

Reflection:

My final trade for the week on Friday was a cheeky trend-continuation trade on USD/JPY 1-Hour.

I say cheeky because price was looking very over-extended as it rallied up into a major Daily resistance zone. This chart reminds me of those Jenga towers when they get slightly too tall and unstable.

But anyway, price had technically not yet definitively touched that resistance zone, so I was anticipating one last blow-off top out of this move and thought my first target had a very good chance of being hit.

I didn’t really expect much out of my second target given that price was likely to have a relief retracement from this resistance zone, but you never know for certain what price will do, and this trade met my rules, so it was a Good Trade to end the week on.

Weekly Reflection

Annual Return: +14.12% | Drawdown: -11.25%

Last Week’s Goal: Execute my plan flawlessly.

Overall Grade: A

This week was a slow one, but a small step in the right direction, and I’ll take it.

I don’t have much to say other than I’m still in a somewhat nasty drawdown of 11%, but that’s not very statistically significant according to my backtesting results so all I can do for now is continue to execute my plan as best as I can and let the long-term numbers play out.

Good luck with your own trading this week, and I’ll check back in next week to let you know how things are going. Until then… you know what I’ll be doing!

Next Week’s Goal

Execute my plan flawlessly.

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